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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-02-19T10:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-02-19T10:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19238/-1
CME Note: Visible as a partial halo N in STEREO A COR2, visible in NE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Source inconclusive, but possibly associated with some dimming/brightening in STEREO A EUVI 195 between 2022-02-19T05:45Z and 2022-02-19T08:55Z (data gap) and in SDO AIA 193 beginning around 2022-02-19T06:15Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-02-22T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/19266/1
Model Inputs:
2022-02-17T21:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-54.0, Lat.=16.0, Speed=373.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2022-02-18T06:02Z
2022-02-18T18:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-39.0, Lat.=27.0, Speed=562.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2022-02-19T00:28Z
2022-02-19T10:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-33.0, Lat.=20.0, Speed=445.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2022-02-19T16:08Z
2022-02-19T17:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-32.0, Lat.=-18.0, Speed=338.0, HalfAngle=30.0, Time21.5=2022-02-20T04:37Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-02-22T12:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-02-21T11:43Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2022-02-22T10:44Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220218_060200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220218_060200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220218_060200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220218_060200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220218_060200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220218_060200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220218_060200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220218_060200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220218_060200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220218_060200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220218_060200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220218_060200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220218_060200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220218_060200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220218_060200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220218_060200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: -2.17 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Michelangelo Romano (M2M SWAO) on 2022-02-22T14:10Z

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